April 15, 2025
As the 2024 U.S. election dust settles and Donald Trump prepares for a potential second term, Canada is once again in the spotlight of his foreign policy agenda. In recent speeches and interviews, Trump has made it clear that his priorities with Canada revolve around three main issues: trade imbalances, defense spending, and immigration control.
1. Trade Rebalancing
Trump’s “America First” economic agenda continues to shape his views on trade with Canada. Despite the renegotiation of NAFTA into USMCA during his first term, Trump has signaled dissatisfaction with what he calls “unfair advantages” for Canadian dairy, lumber, and automotive sectors.
In a recent rally in Ohio, Trump stated:
“We love Canada, but they’re taking advantage of us on trade. We’re going to fix that. Our farmers and workers deserve better.”
Analysts expect that if Trump returns to the Oval Office, he may push for another revision of the USMCA or implement targeted tariffs on Canadian exports.
2. NATO & Defense Spending
Trump has long criticized NATO allies for under-contributing to collective defense budgets. Canada, which currently spends about 1.38% of its GDP on defense—below NATO’s 2% target—remains one of Trump’s frequent examples.
During a recent interview with Fox News, he said:
“If our friends like Canada want our protection, they’ve got to pay their fair share. We’re not the world’s piggy bank anymore.”
This could lead to renewed pressure on the Canadian government to increase defense spending or face diplomatic friction with Washington.
3. Immigration and Border Security
With renewed concerns over border security and asylum seekers entering the U.S. through Canada, Trump is also expected to tighten cross-border policies.
There has been a noticeable rise in rhetoric regarding “loopholes” in U.S.-Canada immigration cooperation. Trump’s team is reportedly exploring ways to amend the Safe Third Country Agreement and introduce stricter monitoring of northern border entries.
What This Means for Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration has so far avoided direct confrontation with Trump, emphasizing cooperation and diplomacy. However, the potential for trade disputes and defense budget conflicts remains high.
Experts suggest that Canada should be preparing for:
- Tougher trade negotiations
- Increased defense pressure from NATO and the U.S.
- Stricter immigration policies affecting asylum seekers
Conclusion
While Trump often delivers bold rhetoric, his demands from Canada in 2025 follow a familiar pattern. Trade, defense contributions, and immigration remain key areas of focus. Whether or not Trump returns to office, Canadian policymakers must remain proactive and ready for possible policy shifts across the border.
